So I've finally read through the much maligned Singapore Population White Paper. Much of the commentary, not surprisingly, has been on the headline 6.9Mn population 2030 forecast number and the huge challenges: infrastructure sufficiency, greying population and the integration of immigrants.
My main takeaway from the paper and the subsequent discussions is more optimistic though. I think the circumstances make Singapore an ideal place to incubate innovative design and technology solutions for urban cities. Done right, this city could be the model for other burgeoning metropolises globally in time to come.
The white paper as it stands, has too much emphasis on linear solutions, of the "build more, build earlier" kind. To be fair the word 'innovative' appears 8 times. However, beyond stating "we will explore innovative solutions", it lacks the specifics on the potential set of innovations. I highlight here a few existing collaborative-consumption examples, but the possibilities go far beyond this category:
More car rides, without more cars
Getaround allows anyone to rent out their vehicle by the hour to people nearby. Ever noticed the large number of cars parked around you while you're desperately trying to hail a taxi? There's also services like Uber for the times when you just need your own chauffeur, while Lyft lets anyone provide rides to others with their own car.
More personal help, without more helpers
Companies like TaskRabbit allow people to be "part-time-anything", and lets anyone get help with errands - anything from grocery shopping to technical help. Sounds like a good way avoid importing more foreign labour. Plus 'Taskrabbitter' sounds a lot better than 'cleaner', hence opening such 'jobs' to a broader pool of people that otherwise would not have done this type of work.
More education, without more classrooms
Skillshare lets you learn directly from experts on specific topics. And if you prefer more established professors, you can also learn from the best at Coursera, which offer the gamut from algorithms (by a Princeton professor) to physiology (by a Duke professor)
The list goes on, including Airbnb* (more tourism, without more tourism labour) and OpenDesks (more office space, without more offices). So there's a bunch of innovations already out there.
Now, why is Singapore great place to incubate them?
1. Infrastructure is already in place
Key technology enablers are already in place for a lot of these innovations. Singapore has one of the highest smartphone penetration globally, at 90% of population. Broadband penetration is at over 100% of households, and there are ready tools like online identification (SingPass) and mapping (onemap.sg).
2. Minimal price distortion
Singapore's economy has minimal distortions through government interventions, e.g. fuel subsidies. The economics for participants in such innovations (e.g. a person renting out his car), as well as the companies involved would likely be attractive. Put simply, high prices in Singapore make it worthwhile for people to consider sharing their car/room/time.
3. Burning platform
Most importantly, Singapore is a resource-constrained island, and its residents are feeling those constraints now more than ever before. The need to experiment and encourage such non-linear ideas should be stronger here than anywhere else.
Still, there are significant hurdles to overcome. First among many is whether there is recognition of point 3 above by the government and regulators. New startups with non-linear ideas are often disruptive and in many cases aren't welcome by industry incumbents. Case in point - Uber's regulatory challenges.
The government and regulators here can do one of three things: (i) get in the way by trying to over-regulate at early stages of these innovations, (ii) do nothing and slow innovation through regulatory ambiguity, or (iii) work towards a regulatory framework that supports such experimentation and innovation. There's only one answer here that puts Singapore in the best position to succeed.
*Disclosure: I work at Airbnb